Experts believe that the virus should lose strength with the arrival of heat in a few months
“Months.” This is the answer given by Gianni Rezza, director of the infectious diseases department at the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, when asked how long the coronavirus will be active in Italy.
“We have a small number of cases. We have reached the second or third generation of infections”, he explains.
Rezza is at pains to reassure: “The main outbreak is limited. The new cases are almost all attributable to the epicenter of the epidemic in the Lodi region and the two smaller outbreaks in Veneto.” But he remains realistic: “We still expect an increase in the number of cases, until the measures adopted produce the expected effects.”
The virus outside the cage
In short, the coronavirus is among us. “It's clear now, he's out of the cage,” admits Guido Silvestri, head of the Pathology department at Emory University in Atlanta. “We found it almost everywhere. The coronavirus will infect many people. Fortunately, it doesn't hurt much, especially in people under 60. The young remain in good condition and the children appear resilient. The greatest risk is for the elderly and patients on dialysis, with heart or respiratory failure. We must prepare well to prevent infections, especially in this part of society.”
Italians will have to live with the virus for a long time, predicts Massimo Ciccozzi, an epidemiologist at the biomedical campus in Rome. "But in the end, by isolating infected people, we will be able to break the chain of infections."
His specialty is bringing together the genomes of viruses sequenced so far and reconstructing the family tree. “We observed two important mutations compared to the Sars that circulated in 2003. The first makes the new coronavirus more contagious. The second fortunately makes it less lethal.”
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Looking forward to spring
Spring is also one of the obstacles to predictions. “It’s just a feeling,” explains Silvestri.
“But it is possible that the spread of the coronavirus is also linked to environmental factors. We do not explain the fact that populous nations, with intense ties with China, are free from contagion. I'm thinking of Indonesia, India, Thailand, Bangladesh, Africa. Perhaps temperature plays an important role in limiting the epidemic. In this case, the heat could slow down the virus also in Italy, as happens with seasonal colds and flu.”
As for spring, we also have to wait to understand the direction the epidemic will take. “In the coming weeks, when these patients recover, we will see if the new infections continue,” explains Giovanni Maga, virologist and director of the CNR Institute of Molecular Genetics in Pavia. “What would be needed is European coordination. Of course there are many cases here, because the tests we perform are many. If we used the same criteria everywhere, we would have a clearer picture.”
By ELENA DUSI / Republic
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