Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has a 44% approval rating, according to a poll by the Ipsos institute. The survey also indicates a decline for Fratelli d'Italia, Lega, and Partito Democratico, and points to a direct impact of Roberto Vannacci's new party on the center-right balance.
Fratelli d'Italia (Meloni) appears with 28%. The Partito Democratico (Elly Schlein) has 20,7%. Lega (Salvini) records 6,1%. The new Futuro Nazionale movement (Roberto Vanacci) is estimated at 3,6%.
Domestic politics and the new party
Vannacci's departure from the Lega and the creation of Futuro Nazionale caused changes in voting patterns.
According to data released by Corriere della Sera, the Lega loses 1,9 percentage points. Fratelli d'Italia falls 1,4 points. Forza Italia (Tajani) is estimated at 8,4 percent, with a drop of 0,3 points.
The data suggests that almost two-thirds of the votes... National Future They come from voters of the Lega and Fratelli d'Italia. There is also an attraction from a segment of the electorate that previously declared themselves undecided or did not vote.
Voting intention
Opposition
In the opposition camp, the Partito Democratico (PD) fell by more than one point in the last month, reaching 20,7 percent.
The 5 Stelle Movement is stable at 13,4 percent.
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra rose to 6,8 percent. Azione registered 2,8 percent. +Europa scored 1,8 percent. Italia Viva remained at 2,4 percent.
Government assessment
The government's approval rating remains stable. The Executive branch's approval rating is 43 percent among those who express an opinion.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has a 44 percent positive approval rating.
Among the leaders, Antonio Tajani appears with a score of 30. Giuseppe Conte has 28. Elly Schlein scores 25.
Roberto Vannacci debuts in the survey with an index of 18.
Impact on the majority and electoral law
The scenario influences the debate on the proposed electoral law called StabilicumThe text provides for a majority bonus for those who reach 40 percent of the vote.
With Futuro Nazionale, the center-right would reach 46,9 percent, compared to 45,1 percent for the progressive camp.
Without Vannacci, the center-right would have 43,3 percent, below the opposing bloc.
Azione would be excluded from the distribution of seats because it falls below the 3 percent threshold for parties without coalitions.
The political landscape remains in flux. The outcome of constitutional referendumThe election, scheduled to take place on March 22 and 23, 2026, and the progress of the debate on electoral reform could alter the scenario again.
