The shortage of aviation fuel in Europe is increasing uncertainty about flights to Italy in the summer of 2026. Airlines are avoiding predicting the situation beyond mid-May.
The problem occurs amidst the intermittent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran. This route handles approximately 20% of the world's oil transport.
The director of the International Air Transport Association, Willie Walsh, stated that Europe could begin to register cancellations "by the end of May" due to fuel shortages.
Situation in Italy
Italy is considered more vulnerable than other European Union countries because it is more dependent on imports of gas and fuel.
In early April, Air BP Italia limited fuel supplies to Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso, and Venice. Brindisi, Reggio Calabria, and Pescara even ran out of fuel.
No flights were directly cancelled at that time. The country's main international airports, Rome Fiumicino and Milan Malpensa, were not affected.
The Italian civil aviation authority, Enac, initially classified the situation as "contingent and marginal." Later, the head of the agency, Pierluigi Di Palma, said the scenario was "quite critical."
"We have never experienced a situation like this before," Di Palma told Italian television.
Risk of cancellations and price increases.
The impact doesn't depend solely on the amount of fuel available. Companies that haven't protected prices with forward contracts are more exposed to rising costs.
Less profitable routes, especially those to smaller airports, may be the first to be affected.
The Lufthansa Group has announced the cancellation of 20 short-haul flights through October. Rome was cited as one of the hubs where the cuts will be concentrated.
A RyanairThe largest company operating in Italy stated that supplies are only guaranteed until the end of May.
“Nobody knows what will happen. At the moment, what seems clear is that if the war ends at the end of April or the beginning of May, there will be no problems with fuel supply during the summer, but if it continues, we don’t know,” Michael O’Leary told the Italian press.
Wizz Air reported experiencing fuel shortages in Venice, Brindisi, and Catania. According to the company, the problems were resolved "within a few hours," without any cancellations.
Passenger rights
European Union rules protect passengers on flights departing from countries within the bloc, such as Italy, or operated by airlines based in the EU.
Companies can change schedules without paying compensation if they offer alternatives more than two weeks in advance.
If the cancellation occurs with less than 14 days' notice, the passenger may be entitled to compensation. In last-minute cancellations, there may also be entitlement to food and accommodation.
The central question will be whether companies can classify the physical fuel shortage caused by the conflict in Iran as an "extraordinary circumstance." If so, they may be exempt from compensation.
The European Commission has stated that a price increase alone is not enough. Only a physical shortage of fuel can meet this criterion.
