The Gimbe Foundation, an independent body that aims to promote training and research in the health sector, warns that it would be risky to ease restriction measures before the end of May, when the so-called Phase 2 is planned, aiming for the coveted “zero infection” of the new coronavirus, Covid-19.
For Gimbe, the date indicated for relaxing the measures is June 2, when the increase in cases should fall to 0,1%.
To achieve this low percentage, the Gimbe model predicts a significant drop from April 16th, when the increase in cases will fall to 2%, to 1% on April 27th, to 0,5% on May 7th, down to 0,1. .2% on June XNUMX.
According to data released this Tuesday (07), the increase in cases is 2,29%.
It all depends on us
In summary, independent analyzes by the GIMBE Foundation suggest that: the contagion curve has decreased, but the increase in new cases is still relevant.
Social distancing measures have eased the burden on hospitals, but their effect on the total number of cases is still modest.
The easing of measures must be gradual and differentiated by type of intervention and, whenever possible, “personalized” in the various regions, closely monitoring the emergence of new outbreaks.
If the slowdown in new cases is confirmed in the coming weeks, with a certain amount of risk, “Phase 2” could be initiated between the end of April and the beginning of May, accepting the risk of a new increase in infections.
See the graph showing the progress of the epidemic in Italy towards “zero contagion”:
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