Currently Italy has 60.244.639, and in 80 years, the population will be approximately 30,5 million
Italy's population will fall by half by 2100, according to a study published in the scientific journal 'The Lancet'.
Italy currently has 60.244.639, and in 80 years the population will be approximately 30,5 million.
Experts report that by 2100, of the world's 195 countries involved in the study, 183 will not have high enough fertility rates (being below the replacement level of 2,1 births per woman) to maintain current populations without immigration policies.
For Italy, the total fertility rate is estimated at 1,2. In Poland around 1,17.
Specifically, the population of Italy, which has already left behind the peak of 61 million inhabitants reached in 2014, will be decimated throughout the century.
Shared destiny with Spain (from 46 million in 2017 to around 23 million people in 2100).
Economic effects?
Although the United Kingdom, Germany and France are expected to remain in the top 10 countries by GDP, by the end of the century Italy and Spain are expected to fall in the rankings: from the ninth and 13th largest global economies in 2017, they will fall to the 25th and 28th places, respectively in 2100.
After all, experts' predictions point to the UK population growing from around 67 million in 2017 to around 71 million in 2100. With a life expectancy that was 81 years in 2017, and expected to rise to almost 85 by 2100 .
Among the 23 countries that will have their populations reduced by half, there are also realities such as Japan (from 128 million to 60 million) or Thailand.
In Portugal in 2100 there could be only 5 million people. But drastic drops in the working-age population are also expected in countries like India and China, “which will harm economic growth”, experts point out.
“This study offers governments in all countries the opportunity to begin rethinking their migration, labor and economic development policies to meet the challenges posed by demographic change,” notes Christopher Murray, director of the IHME - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
“Population decline could be good for reduced carbon emissions and less stress on the food system,” says Stein Emil Vollset, first author of the paper.
“But our results suggest that the decline in the number of working-age adults will only reduce GDP growth rates and could trigger major shifts in global economic power by the end of the century. Responding to population decline is likely to become a major political concern in many nations,” concludes Vollset.
The original report, and in English, can be read here: The Lancet.
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