There is a 55% chance that Italy's government will be reformed, says agency

Eurasia estimates a 55% chance that Italy's government will be reformed in the coming days.

Internal tensions within the country's governing coalition could lead to a reshuffling of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte's cabinet, who is expected to remain in office, according to an assessment by the consultancy agency.

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This scenario is seen as the most likely (40%) resulting from the constant pressure from former prime minister, now senator, Matteo Renzi on Conte.

However, Eurasia considers a 15% chance of a change in the prime minister, which would be a new name supported by the same coalition of parties.

The pressure on Conte intensified in the last quarter of 2020, with his handling of the second wave of Covid-19 coming under criticism.

Renzi accused the prime minister of trying to take governance powers for the next spending of the European Union Recovery Fund, excluding related parties, including Renzi's Itália Viva.

A new cabinet meeting is scheduled for Thursday, with the approval of a revised Recovery Plan and a new governance structure.

Current coalition of governing parties can remain

Eurasia considers that the maintenance of the current coalition of governing parties can be maintained, but with Conte's withdrawal from the position of prime minister, in a scenario with a probability of 15%.

This projection would be confirmed if the clashes involving the Recovery Fund are not resolved, and a greater crisis is generated.

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Has your Italian citizenship process stalled?

Abandoned, poorly handled, or stalled cases at the consulate may still have a legal recourse.

• No progress
• Errors in strategy
• Delay at the consulate or comune.
• Is the Italian man's grandson alive?

See if there is still a solution.

The conflict could be resolved in less likely ways, according to Eurasia, such as through a broader coalition led by a government with a “technocratic” bent.

In practice, says the consultancy, these possible changes should not fundamentally alter the perspective of policies adopted by Italy.

The departure of Italia Viva from the government coalition to form a broad right-wing coalition represents a last scenario that is even less likely, according to the Eurasia.

The calling of instant elections should also not occur, since organizing the election in the midst of the pandemic would be a challenge, says the consultancy, especially considering the postponement of the regional elections in Calabria and municipal elections.

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