Southern Italy lost 154,000 young people in five years; more than half of those leaving have university degrees

Southern Italy lost about 154,000 young people ages 25 to 34 to the country’s Center-North between 2021 and 2025. The figure is part of the 2026 Svimez Report, presented Tuesday (10) in Rome in the presence of Italian President Sergio Mattarella.

The departure of qualified young people is one of the main problems identified by the study. Currently, 54% of those leaving the Mezzogiorno, as southern Italy is known, for the Center-North have university degrees. In 2005, that proportion was below 25%.

The 154,000 represents the negative net migration balance during the period—that is, the difference between young people who left the South and those who arrived in the region from the Center-North.

The movement is taking place despite the economic recovery recorded in recent years. Between 2021 and 2025, the Mezzogiorno’s gross domestic product, or GDP, grew 9.5%, above the 6.6% recorded in the Center-North.

Employment grows, but young people benefit little

Since 2021, the number of employed people in southern Italy has increased by 643,000, according to data for the second quarter of 2026.

Of that total, only about 70,000 are under age 35. This means that the labor market recovery has benefited young people proportionally less.

Another problem is the loss of purchasing power.

Between 2021 and the first half of 2026, real hourly wages fell 9.9% in the Mezzogiorno. The Italian average decline was 7.2%, while in the eurozone it was 0.6%.

The gap is also reflected in the earnings of professionals with higher education.

Five years after completing their studies, a young graduate in the South earns an average of €1,748 net per month. In the Center-North, the amount is €1,780, while the European average reaches €2,850, according to data presented by Svimez.

The study also reveals that 19.5% of employed people in the South live in households at risk of poverty. In the Center-North, that proportion is 6.8%.

Departure of graduates represents a loss of €135 billion

The migration of qualified professionals also has economic consequences for the regions they leave behind.

Svimez estimates that, between 2000 and 2024, the departure of graduates from the South to the Center-North and abroad resulted in a negative balance of approximately €135 billion in education costs.

The estimate considers the educational investment associated with professionals leaving the region, without representing a direct transfer of that amount between territories.

The phenomenon also affects women with university degrees. According to the report, 16,000 female graduates migrated from the South to the North during the period covered by the study.

The loss of professionals is not limited to the Mezzogiorno.

Over the past three years, Italy’s Center-North has also recorded a negative net migration balance of more than 36,000 graduates under age 35 in relation to foreign countries.

The data show that Italy is facing two movements: young people leaving the South for the country’s more developed regions and the emigration of qualified professionals to other countries.

South’s growth expected to slow in 2027

The report also warns of a possible interruption to the Mezzogiorno’s economic recovery.

Svimez forecasts GDP growth of 0.9% for the South in 2026, slightly above the 0.8% estimated for the Center-North.

In 2027, however, the trend is expected to reverse. The projection is for 0.5% growth in the Mezzogiorno, compared with 0.6% in the Center-North.

The slowdown is mainly related to the reduced economic stimulus from extraordinary investments under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, or PNRR, funded with European resources.

According to the organization, investment in the South is expected to grow 6% in 2026, but only 0.8% in 2027.

The estimates indicate that the recent recovery still depends heavily on public investment and has not translated into a broad improvement in wages and living conditions.

South could lose 26% of its children by 2040

In addition to the migration of young people, the Mezzogiorno faces an accelerated decline in its population.

Svimez projections indicate that the number of residents under age 15 is expected to fall 26% between 2026 and 2040, from approximately 2.4 million to 1.7 million.

The projected decline is greater than the Italian average, estimated at 15%, and that of the European Union, at 11%.

The aging process is already reflected in the young population.

Between 2006 and 2026, the number of residents ages 15 to 34 in the South fell by about 1.4 million, a decline of more than 25%.

The scenario combines low birth rates, population aging and the departure of qualified professionals.

For Svimez, the priority is to turn the economic recovery into better working conditions, wages and public services, creating opportunities for young people to remain in the regions where they were born.