Between 62% and 68% of Italian voters are expected not to participate in the referendums scheduled for the following days 8 and 9 for June, according to an Ipsos survey published by the newspaper Corriere della Sera. Low participation threatens to reach the quorum required to validate the popular consultation.
The theme of Italian citizenship is one of the central points. The proposal seeks to reduce from ten to five years the minimum period of legal residence required for foreigners to apply for citizenship. It is important to note that this is not a citizenship based on blood (ius sanguinis), and yes in naturalization.
Another group of questions deals with changes in labor laws, such as the repeal of sections of the Jobs Act, as well as rules on dismissals and workplace safety.
According to the survey, voters from the Democratic Party (PD) and the 5 Star Movement (M5S) are the most likely to vote. Even so, only 28% say they will definitely go to the polls and 15% say it is very likely. The final estimate of turnout is between 32% and 38%, which would render the referendum invalid, since more than half of the electorate needs to vote.
Since 1995, only two referendums have managed to reach this quorum. Given this history, a possible change in the rule is being discussed: considering as a basis the voters who participated in the last general elections, when the turnout was 79%.
Although 62% of those interviewed said they were informed about the issues, only 53% considered the referendums relevant. Support for labor changes is overwhelming, with up to 87% voting “yes”. In the case of Italian citizenship, support falls to 66%, reflecting the division between the center-left, in favor, and the center-right, in opposition.
The exclusion of the question on regional autonomy, considered unconstitutional by the Court, also contributed to the lack of interest. The situation puts the efforts of the organizers in check, who will have to intensify the campaign to mobilize the electorate.
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