With one of the lowest birth rates in Europe and a continued exodus of skilled young people, Italy could lose up to half its population by 2100. The estimate raises alarm bells about the country's future and intensifies the debate on how to train "new Italians".
According to projections from United Nations (UN), the Italian population could fall from about 59 million to 27,4 million by the end of the century, in the low fertility scenario. Even in the average scenario, the number should fall to 35,4 million. The data is available in the report World Population Prospects.
O Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) also predicts a significant reduction: the resident population should fall to 58,6 million in 2045 e 53,7 millions up to 2065, if current trends continue.
In June, a national referendum proposes to reduce the time required to obtain citizenship through residency from ten to five years. The measure aims to facilitate naturalization of legal immigrants, the main alternative in the face of demographic shrinkage.
The process currently requires a decade of continuous residency, a minimum income and can take up to three years to complete. The government, led by a right-wing coalition, is against the proposal and is trying to block the referendum with an abstention campaign.
The predicted population decline is compounded by the aging of Italian society. Without generational renewal and with little incentive to encourage births, the country runs the risk of compromising the active base that sustains the economy and the social security system.
The opposition, which proposed the proposal, estimates that up to 2,5 million people could benefit from the change, including young people born in Italy to foreign parents, who currently face legal obstacles to becoming Italian citizens.
While the government restricts even the right to citizenship by descent, as in the current reform of the law of iure sanguinis (right of blood), the referendum appears as an attempt to reverse a worrying situation. Experts point out that, without opening up to immigration, demographic recovery will be unfeasible.
However, according to recent research, the referendum could fail due to low turnout. The validity of the result requires a minimum quorum of 50%, which is considered unlikely.
Italy is at an impasse: either it reinforces inclusion and integration policies, or it will head towards a predicted population collapse.
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