Italy is Europe's new economic "locomotive", says the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The growth of gross domestic product of Italy in 2021 goes beyond all expectations – an increase 6,3%, detected by OECD analysts, which goes in the opposite direction à world trend, and dragging down the continent's economy.
A recovery phase like perhaps only happened in the 1960s.
OECD economic outlook for Italy
The upward reassessment of Italian GDP growth comes from the periodic updating of Italy's economic outlook. OECD, presented in Paris.
A growth estimate of the Italian economy, in the report that has just been published, increases by 0,4 percentage points for 2021, according to the portal Quifinanza.
The forecast for 2022 also improves, when the OECD predicts GDP growth of 4,6% to Italy.
Estimates higher than those in the Def update note
Analysts' forecasts, therefore, for Italy continue to improve.
At the end of 2020, the forecast for 2021 was a 4,3% increase in GDP, which fell to 4,1% in March, but rose again to 4,4% in May.
The March 9 forecast for 2022 indicated growth of 4%, in line with the global trend, then updated on May 31 to 4,4%.
The current forecast for + 6,3% also exceeds the + 6% inserted by the Government in the Update to the Def.
Meanwhile, Istat confirmed growth of +2,6% in Italian economy in the third quarter of 2021.
The other OECD forecasts for our country
In addition to GDP, the OECD World Economic Outlook for December also investigates other aspects of our economy.
Although it remains “a source of vulnerability potential”, the national debt continues with a trend of reducing , with a ratio to GDP of 154,6% in 2021, 150,4% in 2022 and 148,6% in 2023.
To further reduce the level of debt, highlights the OECD, however, it would require “even greater growth in the medium term”.
However, the relationship deficit / GDP also falls: 9,4% in this year, 5,9% in 2022 and 4,3% in 2023. Potential risks include the expected “sharp increase” in non-performing bank loans.
Still working on job and wage growth
The forecast rate of unemployment at the end of the year should be equal to 9,6%, after 8,9% in 2022 and 8,4% in 2023.
E wage growth remains contained. “The implementation of structural reforms to digitize and streamline the civil and bankruptcy justice systems, increase competition, especially in services, and increase the efficiency of Public Administration – concludes the OECD – continues to be crucial, together with tax reform to reduce wedge and the complexity of labor taxes”.
